Warming seas and the late arrival of El Nino is expected to cause a near-normal to above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic, according to the National Oceanic and Atmopsheric Administration.

The announcement is a slight increase from the NOAA’s May predictions. The agency is anticipating 12 to 17 tropical storms, with five to eight becoming hurricanes, and likely two to three becoming major hurricanes. The U.S. Census bureau estimates more than 37 million Americans living along the Texas-to-North Carolina coast are at risk of hurricanes. Inland flooding remains the most dangerous and deadly effect of hurricanes, amounting to more than half of hurricane-related deaths.